ROSE: This is also a concern in Syria as well, in terms of what happens there. You know, and if in fact ISIL is defeated in Raqqa, if that happens and they take the battle somewhere else, and you end up with a civil war there—just the civil war— CLAPPER: Well, we already have one in— ROSE: No, that’s what I mean. End up that that’s the primary fight there, between the Assad government and rebels. CLAPPER: Well, it’s actually, I think, a lot more complex than that, because there are so many shades of opposition groups— ROSE: Right.
CLAPPER: —in Syria. And, of course, you have the added complexity of the Russians, who very much want to keep their beachhead, toehold, whatever figure you want to use, in the Mideast. And by propping up what has been a sponsor ally of theirs, again, that just adds to the complexity there.
ROSE: It’s likely Assad will be in power when President Obama leaves.
CLAPPER: Well, that’s a fair guess, yeah.
ROSE: Yeah. So what do we do? What’s our strategy?
CLAPPER: Not my department. (Laughter.) I don’t have to—
ROSE: What worries you the most?
ROSE: What worries you the most?
CLAPPER: Well, in general or about—
ROSE: About Syria and about where it’s going and whether Mosul will make more likely an attack on Raqqa, whether—
CLAPPER: Well, I think—
ROSE: —al-Nusra is—what role they play, you know.
CLAPPER: What concerns me, I guess, is—lots of things concern me.
ROSE: Yeah. In fact, you said the thing that you worry about most is what you don’t know.
CLAPPER: What you don’t know. Exactly. Yeah, you remember. That’s really good. (Laughter.) It is a concern.
I think what we have to be mindful of as, you know, the nation-state attributes, such as they are, of the caliphate, asserted by ISIL, is being defeated—
CLAPPER: —as a so-called nation-state-like entity. But I think the history of ISIL, going back to its al-Qaida in Iraq roots, is one of resilience and flexibility. So the—what I can—what worries me about all this is we’ve gotten focused, understandably, on recapturing territory or cities, in this case Mosul in Iraq and al-Raqqa in Syria.
CLAPPER: So when that happens, what then does ISIL—what form does it take after that, because it is probably not going to go away, and it’ll morph into something else or other similar extremist groups will be spawned. And I believe we’re going to be in the business of suppressing these extremist movements for a long time to come.
ROSE: So whatever happens in Raqqa, ISIS will still be with us in some form or another, some name, in the same way they morphed out of al-Qaida in Iraq.
Una delle poche volte in cui Clapper ispira tenerezza.
Raqqa è una tappa essenziale, ma andarci con le difficoltà in cui versano le truppe impegnate a Mosul, è un azzardo. Andarci pure con le SDF che a malapena tengono il fucile in mano e non ispirano simpatia a nessuno è un suicidio . Anche conquistassero un pezzo di terra da quelle parti, lo consegnerebbero ad Assad, tanto sono conosciuti come personcine di cui potersi fidare. Sul terreno non li aiuterà nessuno. Probabilmente l'entusiasmo di Carter è dovuto alla copertura aerea fornita. Che poi qualcuno dovrebbe spiegare la presenza della Turchia. Data per sicura dagli americani. Negata dai loro alleati.
In ogni caso il chaos regnerà a Raqqa, Putin avrà un'altra occasione per provocare e la situazione infiammerà gli animi dei foreign fighters di ritorno e lupi solitari.
Il genio che ha suggerito a Renzi di fare le barricate a difesa della Russia, adesso dovrebbe indicare come procedere. Oppure potremmo chiedere al notav torinese di inviare un altro messaggio.