Levels&Challenges

no single country or agency had complete ownership of the ANDSF development;  the length of U.S. commitment did not reflect the actual time required to build an entire security sector;  advisors were often ill-trained and inexperienced for their mission, and personnel rotations impeded institutional memory;  the United States created long-term dependencies by taking over equipment procurement for the ANDSF and providing the ANDSF with advanced equipment it could not independently sustain;....Afghan government corruption harmed ANDSF capabilities and morale;  Afghan officials lacked ownership of military strategies and access to critically important tracking and accountability systems. Sigar May 2022

It is possible these former Afghan military and other intelligence personnel could be recruited or coerced into working for one of America’s adversaries that maintains a presence in Afghanistan, including Russia, China, or Iran. This is especially true given reports that some former Afghan military personnel have fled to Iran. The recruitment of former Afghan military and intelligence personnel poses a major national security risk due to the fact these Afghan personnel know the U.S. military and intelligence community’s tactics, techniques, and procedures. "These commandos are trained, highly trained, on how we do signals intelligence, how we do human intelligence, how we operate," Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL). "We know that the Taliban are hunting them down. They are seeking to force them through coercion to hand over that information so that they can use it and they can understand how we operate." Republican Interim Report August 2022

I think the relationship with the United States is very much appreciated by my country. We value this friendship that has stood the test of time for nearly 200 years, and I think it is only fair to say I think it is bound to grow stronger and deeper in the years to come.Al Busaidi-Blinken and the mutual resolve of both sates for keeping up, expanding and strengthening bilateral relations as well as regional and international cooperation. They also exchanged views over the latest status of negotiations on securing a removal of sanctions against Iran. Al Busaidi Amirabdollahian 

 The jihadi outfit is reportedly confident that SNA factions would fail to reorganize by the year's end and its own plans would remain unchallenged. The MIT has allegedly punished the Levant Front in a move that is likely to play into the HTS’ hands. Turkey’s anger with the Levant Front is traced back to the group’s refusal to contribute fighters to Turkey’s allies in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. The Hamza Division and the Suleyman Shah Division, which have collaborated with HTS, are among the factions in closest contact with Turkish intelligence. almonitor

In Libia gli jihadisti hanno colto l'occasione per sviluppare ulteriormente una dimensione economico-finanziaria già coltivata in Siria attraverso la proprietà di attività commerciali e la partecipazione a trasferimento/vendita di prodotti da fonti energetiche. Le fazioni sostenute direttamente dalla Turchia hanno invece subíto il contraccolpo del crescente livello di interazione tra qaedisti, o ex, e MIT-TSK

I commandos di cui si é parlato in un recente reportage giornalistico, costituiscono un potenziale bacino di reclutamento per le stesse ragioni per le quali c'è stato il tracollo nelle ultime fasi dell'era americana in Afghanistan. Sono stati addestrati e potenziati senza plasmarne l'ideologia o motivarli in maniera mirata. Il compito è stato lasciato al governo. Si è trattato di un tentativo simile all'operazione compiuta su YPG/SDF che da soli avevano raggiunto un livello ideale di amalgama. Gli afghani non sono mai stati trasformati in esercito.

E' probabilmente vero che la delusione e il senso di rivalsa possono giocare un ruolo nel reclutamento da parte di Iran e Russia. Le vere motivazioni però, che li spingeranno verso altri teatri di guerra, sono nella dimensione tecnica. Il passaggio ad esercito aiuta un soldato a trovare la sua ragione di vita nella guerra.

Queste dinamiche legate alle guerre moderne, possono rendere complicata la missione dei mediatori impegnati su dossier collaterali.